//

“We will run out of IPv4 address space and the real difficult part is that there is no flag date. It’s a real moving date [...]]]> At the ARIN XXV policy meetings held here this week, ARIN CIO Richard Jimmerson explained how the organization expects to know when the final IPv4 address is gone.

“We will run out of IPv4 address space and the real difficult part is that there is no flag date. It’s a real moving date based on demand and the amount of address space we can reclaim from organizations,” Jimmerson told InternetNews.com. “If things continue they way they have, ARIN will for the very first time, sometime between the middle and end of next year, receive a request for IPv4 address space that is justified and meets the policy. However, ARIN won’t have the address space. So we’ll have to say no for the very first time.”

Many ISPs, bandwidth providers, and other groups out there think we can never run out of IPV4 space.  There are many organizations who have no plans of moving to IPv6, think NAT is evil, and generally don’t care.  I wonder what will happen when ARIN denies their application or tells them it will be some outrageous amount.  I believe IPV4 space will be like radio spectrum, at least until people convert to IPV6.  There will be large auctions bringing ARIN big amounts of money. IPV4 space will become a huge commodity that is sold by those who have excess.  Groups like MIT & HP who have /8 blocks will capitalize on the market.

http://www.enterprisenetworkingplanet.com/news/article.php/3878391

With the distribution of two /8 blocks to APNIC, the Number Resource Organization (NRO) today announced that less than ten percent of available IPv4 addresses remain unallocated.